Associated Press
South Carolinians are headed down a dangerous road to obesity on a collision course to developing new cases of major obesity-related diseases, according to a study published and released Tuesday.
The number of obese adults, along with related disease rates and health care costs, is on course to increase dramatically over the next 20 years in South Carolina, according to "F as in Fat: How Obesity Threatens America's Future 2012," a report released today by Trust for America's Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
By 2030, more than half the people in the nation and the vast majority of states will be obese, according to the projections, which forecasts a terribly grim future for the Palmetto State.
Nationally, by 2030, 13 states could have adult obesity rates above 60 percent, 39 states could have rates above 50 percent, and all 50 states could have rates above 44 percent. Mississippi could have the highest obesity rate at 66.7 percent, and Colorado could have the lowest obesity rate for any state at 44.8 percent.
Findings released by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in early August show there are currently 12 states with very high obesity rates. That means at least 30 percent of adults are already obese in those states.
South Carolina makes that list, as well. The 2011 obesity rate for South Carolina was 31 percent, and the new study predicts South Carolina will have an obesity rate of 63 percent by 2030, according to the study.
The Associated Press reports that Mississippi is expected to retain its crown as the fattest state in the nation for at least two more decades. The report predicts 67 percent of that state's adults will be obese by 2030; that would be an astounding increase from Mississippi's current 35 percent obesity rate.
The group's dismal forecast goes beyond the 42 percent national obesity level that federal health officials project by 2030. The group predicts every state would have rates above 44 percent by that time, although it didn't calculate a national average.
About two-thirds of Americans are overweight now. That includes those who are obese, a group that accounts for about 36 percent.
Obesity rates have been holding steady in recent years. Obesity is defined as having a body-mass index of 30 or more, a measure of weight for height.
Trust for America's Health officials said their projections are based, in part, on state-by-state surveys by the CDC from 1999 through 2010. The phone surveys ask residents to self-report their height and weight; people aren't always so accurate about that.
The researchers then looked at other national data tracking residents' weight and measurements and made adjustments for how much people in each state might fudge the truth about their weight. They also tried to apply recent trends in obesity rates, along with other factors, to make the predictions.
Officials with Trust for America's Health said they believe their projections are reasonable.
"If we don't do anything, I think that's a fair prediction," said Dr. Thomas Farley, health commissioner in New York City, which just passed a regulation banning supersize sugary drinks to curb obesity.
Even in the thinnest state - Colorado, where about one-fifth of residents are obese - 45 percent would be obese by 2030.
Perhaps more surprising, Delaware is expected to have obesity levels nearly as high as Mississippi. Delaware currently is in the middle of the pack when it comes to self-reported obesity rates.
The report didn't detail why some states' rates were expected to jump more than others. It also didn't calculate an average adult obesity rate for the entire nation in 2030, as the CDC did a few months ago. But a researcher who worked on the Trust for America's Health study acknowledged that report's numbers point toward a figure close to 50 percent.
CDC officials declined to comment on the new report.
Whichever estimates you trust most, it's clear that the nation's weight problem is going to continue, escalating the number of cases of diabetes, heart disease and stroke, said Jeff Levi, executive director of Trust for America's Health.
By 2030, medical costs from treating obesity-related diseases are likely to increase by $48 billion, to $66 billion per year, his report said.
The focus of so much of the ongoing debate about health care is over controlling costs, Levi said.
"... We can only achieve it by addressing obesity. Otherwise, we're just tinkering around the margins."
Listed are 2011 obesity levels followed by the Trust for America's Health projections for 2030. States are listed in order from the highest to lowest projections in 2030:
Mississippi, 35 percent, 67 percent
Oklahoma, 31 percent, 66 percent
Delaware, 29 percent, 65 percent
Tennessee, 29 percent, 63 percent
South Carolina, 31 percent, 63 percent
Alabama, 32 percent, 63 percent
Kansas, 30 percent, 62 percent
Louisiana, 33 percent, 62 percent
Missouri, 30 percent, 62 percent
Arkansas, 31 percent, 61 percent
South Dakota, 28 percent, 60 percent
West Virginia, 32 percent, 60 percent
Kentucky, 30 percent, 60 percent
Ohio, 30 percent, 60 percent
Michigan, 31 percent, 59 percent
Arizona, 25 percent, 59 percent
Maryland, 28 percent, 59 percent
Florida, 27 percent, 59 percent
North Carolina, 29 percent, 58 percent
New Hampshire, 26 percent, 58 percent
Texas, 30 percent, 57 percent
North Dakota, 28 percent, 57 percent
Nebraska, 28 percent, 57 percent
Pennsylvania, 29 percent, 57 percent
Wyoming, 25 percent, 57 percent
Wisconsin, 28 percent, 56 percent
Indiana, 31 percent, 56 percent
Washington, 27 percent, 56 percent
Maine, 28 percent, 55 percent
Minnesota, 26 percent, 55 percent
Iowa, 29 percent, 54 percent
New Mexico, 26 percent, 54 percent
Rhode Island, 25 percent, 54 percent
Illinois, 27 percent, 54 percent
Georgia, 28 percent, 54 percent
Montana, 25 percent, 54 percent
Idaho, 27 percent, 53 percent
Hawaii, 22 percent, 52 percent
New York, 25 percent, 51 percent
Virginia, 29 percent, 50 percent
Nevada, 25 percent, 50 percent
Oregon, 27 percent, 49 percent
Massachusetts, 23 percent, 49 percent
New Jersey, 24 percent, 49 percent
Vermont, 25 percent, 48 percent
California, 24 percent, 47 percent
Connecticut, 25 percent, 47 percent
Utah, 24 percent, 46 percent
Alaska, 27 percent, 46 percent
Colorado, 21 percent, 45 percent
District of Columbia, 24 percent, 33 percent
Online:
Trust for America's Health: healthyamericans.org![]()
South Carolinians are headed down a dangerous road to obesity on a collision course to developing new cases of major obesity-related diseases, according to a study published and released Tuesday.
The number of obese adults, along with related disease rates and health care costs, is on course to increase dramatically over the next 20 years in South Carolina, according to "F as in Fat: How Obesity Threatens America's Future 2012," a report released today by Trust for America's Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
By 2030, more than half the people in the nation and the vast majority of states will be obese, according to the projections, which forecasts a terribly grim future for the Palmetto State.
Nationally, by 2030, 13 states could have adult obesity rates above 60 percent, 39 states could have rates above 50 percent, and all 50 states could have rates above 44 percent. Mississippi could have the highest obesity rate at 66.7 percent, and Colorado could have the lowest obesity rate for any state at 44.8 percent.
Findings released by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in early August show there are currently 12 states with very high obesity rates. That means at least 30 percent of adults are already obese in those states.
South Carolina makes that list, as well. The 2011 obesity rate for South Carolina was 31 percent, and the new study predicts South Carolina will have an obesity rate of 63 percent by 2030, according to the study.
The Associated Press reports that Mississippi is expected to retain its crown as the fattest state in the nation for at least two more decades. The report predicts 67 percent of that state's adults will be obese by 2030; that would be an astounding increase from Mississippi's current 35 percent obesity rate.
The group's dismal forecast goes beyond the 42 percent national obesity level that federal health officials project by 2030. The group predicts every state would have rates above 44 percent by that time, although it didn't calculate a national average.
About two-thirds of Americans are overweight now. That includes those who are obese, a group that accounts for about 36 percent.
Obesity rates have been holding steady in recent years. Obesity is defined as having a body-mass index of 30 or more, a measure of weight for height.
Trust for America's Health officials said their projections are based, in part, on state-by-state surveys by the CDC from 1999 through 2010. The phone surveys ask residents to self-report their height and weight; people aren't always so accurate about that.
The researchers then looked at other national data tracking residents' weight and measurements and made adjustments for how much people in each state might fudge the truth about their weight. They also tried to apply recent trends in obesity rates, along with other factors, to make the predictions.
Officials with Trust for America's Health said they believe their projections are reasonable.
"If we don't do anything, I think that's a fair prediction," said Dr. Thomas Farley, health commissioner in New York City, which just passed a regulation banning supersize sugary drinks to curb obesity.
Even in the thinnest state - Colorado, where about one-fifth of residents are obese - 45 percent would be obese by 2030.
Perhaps more surprising, Delaware is expected to have obesity levels nearly as high as Mississippi. Delaware currently is in the middle of the pack when it comes to self-reported obesity rates.
The report didn't detail why some states' rates were expected to jump more than others. It also didn't calculate an average adult obesity rate for the entire nation in 2030, as the CDC did a few months ago. But a researcher who worked on the Trust for America's Health study acknowledged that report's numbers point toward a figure close to 50 percent.
CDC officials declined to comment on the new report.
Whichever estimates you trust most, it's clear that the nation's weight problem is going to continue, escalating the number of cases of diabetes, heart disease and stroke, said Jeff Levi, executive director of Trust for America's Health.
By 2030, medical costs from treating obesity-related diseases are likely to increase by $48 billion, to $66 billion per year, his report said.
The focus of so much of the ongoing debate about health care is over controlling costs, Levi said.
"... We can only achieve it by addressing obesity. Otherwise, we're just tinkering around the margins."
Listed are 2011 obesity levels followed by the Trust for America's Health projections for 2030. States are listed in order from the highest to lowest projections in 2030:
Mississippi, 35 percent, 67 percent
Oklahoma, 31 percent, 66 percent
Delaware, 29 percent, 65 percent
Tennessee, 29 percent, 63 percent
South Carolina, 31 percent, 63 percent
Alabama, 32 percent, 63 percent
Kansas, 30 percent, 62 percent
Louisiana, 33 percent, 62 percent
Missouri, 30 percent, 62 percent
Arkansas, 31 percent, 61 percent
South Dakota, 28 percent, 60 percent
West Virginia, 32 percent, 60 percent
Kentucky, 30 percent, 60 percent
Ohio, 30 percent, 60 percent
Michigan, 31 percent, 59 percent
Arizona, 25 percent, 59 percent
Maryland, 28 percent, 59 percent
Florida, 27 percent, 59 percent
North Carolina, 29 percent, 58 percent
New Hampshire, 26 percent, 58 percent
Texas, 30 percent, 57 percent
North Dakota, 28 percent, 57 percent
Nebraska, 28 percent, 57 percent
Pennsylvania, 29 percent, 57 percent
Wyoming, 25 percent, 57 percent
Wisconsin, 28 percent, 56 percent
Indiana, 31 percent, 56 percent
Washington, 27 percent, 56 percent
Maine, 28 percent, 55 percent
Minnesota, 26 percent, 55 percent
Iowa, 29 percent, 54 percent
New Mexico, 26 percent, 54 percent
Rhode Island, 25 percent, 54 percent
Illinois, 27 percent, 54 percent
Georgia, 28 percent, 54 percent
Montana, 25 percent, 54 percent
Idaho, 27 percent, 53 percent
Hawaii, 22 percent, 52 percent
New York, 25 percent, 51 percent
Virginia, 29 percent, 50 percent
Nevada, 25 percent, 50 percent
Oregon, 27 percent, 49 percent
Massachusetts, 23 percent, 49 percent
New Jersey, 24 percent, 49 percent
Vermont, 25 percent, 48 percent
California, 24 percent, 47 percent
Connecticut, 25 percent, 47 percent
Utah, 24 percent, 46 percent
Alaska, 27 percent, 46 percent
Colorado, 21 percent, 45 percent
District of Columbia, 24 percent, 33 percent
Online:
Trust for America's Health: healthyamericans.org