Editor's note: The Aiken Standard will follow up next week with reactions from Aiken County, City of Aiken and North Augusta officials.
A zero, or negative, growth in population is unlikely, according to the Greater Aiken Chamber of Commerce's 2015 benchmark report, which was released Thursday morning.
According to the report, the population in Aiken County and the cities of Aiken and North Augusta remain positive.
Dr. Clifton Jones, of Angelo State University in Texas, and USC Aiken professor Dr. Sanela Porca presented their 2015 Regional Economic Benchmarking Report for Aiken County to the Aiken Chamber board of directors at the Aiken County Government Center.
That report is funded by the Greater Aiken Chamber of Commerce and the Economic Development Partnership, or EDP. The report follows a similar benchmark study presented last year and also funded by the Chamber.
Jones and Porca collected data from the U.S. Census Bureau and concluded that South Carolina continues to grow "more rapidly" than the nation. The report shows population growth in Aiken County, North Augusta and the City of Aiken slowed in 2013. However, they remained at or above the national average growth rate for 2013.
"Given that population growth in Aiken and North Augusta are not closely linked to that for Aiken County, last year's fear of a zero or negative population growth rate in Aiken no longer seem likely," Jones and Porca wrote.
Data also showed that the population in South Carolina and Aiken County is aging faster than the nation. The downturn in percentage of people ages 65 years or older seen in last year's report for Aiken in 2012 did not persist. It increased from 21.3 percent in 2012 to 22.0 in 2013.
The study again analyzed income and consumer spending, education and the real estate market and then compared that data to Columbia County, Georgia.
Income, employment and spending
The 2015 benchmark report found that the median household income for Aiken County is $44,509 per year, a small increase from the year before. The City of Aiken is still significantly higher in income, but slightly reduced from the 2014 report. It is now at $53,127, which is almost equal to the national average.
Numbers showed that Aiken City households have a median income that exceeds the nation's average, and like 2014, about 17 percent of households in the county have an annual income of more than $100,000 or higher.
The standard of living in Aiken County for workers has dropped by almost 7 percent since 2011, the report said.
"Since most Aiken County residents also work in Aiken County, falling real wages can lead to falling real personal income," according to the study.
"The fact that real personal income in South Carolina rebounded in 2014 despite a drop in real wages gives us some hope that real personal income in Aiken County can also rebound in 2014," they wrote.
The report found that labor force participation rates continued to fall in South Carolina in 2014, along with the rest of the country. However, the size of the labor force grew in the nation, South Carolina and Aiken County in 2014.
Job opportunities in Aiken County rose by about 1,100 jobs, a record high, Jones and Porca wrote, and for the City of Aiken, employment began to trend upward since 2011, but has changed little since then, adding only about 500 new jobs over the past four years.
Unemployment in South Carolina fell from 7.6 percent to 6 percent, about the same as the nation, according to the report. Aiken County and the City of Aiken declined to 7 percent, which Jones called a "good improvement." That number doesn't include people who dropped out of the workforce altogether.
The report showed retail sales in Aiken County returned to a small, but positive growth, and sales in Aiken "surged" by more than 9 percent for 2013-14, nearly hitting the $1 billion mark. That number, Jones said, had more to do with retail sales in Aiken as being reported to the U.S. Department of Revenue as spent outside the city limits. After falling in 2012-13, sales in North Augusta fell again 2013-14, and remain well below the pre-recession peak.
"The large percentage of North Augusta residents who work and shop in neighboring Georgia probably make it difficult for North Augusta to make up this drop in retail sales in the near future," they wrote. "The new retail developments near Exit 5 off I-20 and those associated with Project Jackson would certainly help in this regard."
Comparing Aiken to Columbia County
Since the 2014 report, Jones and Porca wrote that there has been "greater appreciation" of the need to make living in Aiken County more attractive to new workers moving into the area.
"The rapidly growing economy of Columbia County and its strong property and sales tax base allows it to provide high-quality public services to its new residents, including newer and more modern public school facilities, which serve as an attractive magnet for young professionals with school-aged children," they wrote.
Statistics show that Columbia County's population slowed down some in 2013, although it is still much higher than Aiken County. Since 2000, Aiken County saw a growth rate of .28 percent, compared to Columbia County, which saw an increase of 2.18 percent.
As noted in 2014, the level of education attainment in Columbia County is higher than in Aiken County.
"More adults hold a high school diploma or higher, fewer adults stop their formal education at a high school diploma, and more have earned a bachelor's degree or higher," Jones and Porca wrote.
Columbia County's average household income is also higher at $69,306, compared to Aiken at $44,509.
Conclusions/responses
Jones and Porca concluded that from the 2014 report, the "leadership in Aiken County" recognized the need to make Aiken more attractive to new workers by helping to push initiatives such as the referendum to put a special purpose 1 cent sales tax on the ballot to improve and maintain the infrastructure of public schools in Aiken County before the voters and the most recent action by City Council for passing a 1 percent hospitality tax.
Jones said even though a zero rate of growth seems unlikely, officials and leaders must continue to "remain vigilant."
"There's still several measures of personal income and other things that are not moving in the direction that we want them to," Jones said. "So I don't think we should become complacent because we've had a few key variables move in the right direction. It's still important to watch these variables and see where they're going."
Maayan Schechter is the local government reporter with Aiken Standard. Follow her on Twitter @MaayanSchechter.